Document Type

Book Chapter

Publication Date

2026

Abstract

The U.S.-African trade relationship has become increasingly volatile and conditional, with significant implications for supply chains, trade corridors, and regional and global markets. This relationship has historically been based on a unilateral, preferential legal approach through a trade preference programme – the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – under which individual countries petition for eligibility to receive duty-free treatment. AGOA expired in September 2025 in the midst of U.S. tariffs, but in early 2026 the programme was retroactively reauthorised through December 2026, with further application subject to “modernisation” and alignment with the “America First” policy. While many see reauthorisation as a positive sign, if not carefully designed, the “new model” that follows could increase uncertainty and further fragment trade, undermining AGOA’s hard-won gains in sectors such as apparel and non-traditional agricultural products. Alongside these developments, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been gaining momentum to strengthen regional markets and rulemaking, highlighting its significance for future U.S.-African trade.

This chapter will examine U.S.-African trade relations at a critical time and contribute to the literature by offering a comparative analysis of legal models for U.S.-African trade engagement – including trade preference programmes, soft law models, regional trade agreements (RTAs), and sectoral approaches –and the lessons they offer for AGOA’s future and alignment with the AfCFTA’s legal architecture and objectives. One takeaway from this assessment is that the unilateral-reciprocal dichotomy that has underpinned previous AGOA renewals is a false starting point. A range of legal models exist on the spectrum between unilateral trade preferences and traditional reciprocal trade agreements that contain intersecting preferential, regional, and sectoral elements that could be leveraged to support market development and resilient supply chains. However, with the exception of the AfCFTA, many of the models compared in this paper are inherently unilateral and conditional, albeit to varying degrees.

Legal models for U.S.-African trade could be designed to foster regional market integration, development-focused trade corridors, and competitive supply chains in sectors like garments, critical minerals, and food. Yet, in light of both recent events and historical issues, they could also perpetuate imbalances in market potential and stakeholder interests if not carefully designed. Ultimately, stable supply chains, which are in the interest of both African nations and the United States, cannot be built on conditionality and uncertainty. AGOA’s next phase will need to be stable, balanced, and long-term, with careful consideration of legal, social, and sustainable development priorities.

Publication Citation

Forthcoming in Handbook on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) (Routledge), Fikremarkos Merso Birhanu, Martha B. Hailu, Romy Klimke, and Christian Tietje, eds.

Download

Share

COinS